Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Ousting Ahmadinejad - An Endgame?

My previous post - touching on Iran and the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction - was originally posted to a discussion group, where someone commented that "one hopes that the Loon in a Windbreaker gets ousted by the big Mullah-thugs." This is my reply:

Unfortunately just ousting him won't do the trick as long as there are men in power who believe in ushering in the appearance of the 12th imam by creating chaos, injustice, and war. As I understand it there is a passive and an aggressive eschatology regarding the Mahdi and while both sides believe those conditions will bring about his return, the Hojjatieh believe that they can and should hasten his return by creating those conditions.

Ahmadinejad believes in ushering in this Christ-like figure who will bring peace, justice and an end to suffering; an end of history. His spiritual advisor is Mesbah Yazdi who is a patron of this school of thinking (but vehemently denies this since they are a banned organization) who has sought to be Supreme Leader in Iran. He sits on the Assembly of Experts which chooses the Supreme Leader and with reports that the current leader, Khamenei, is sick it is possible he could take over. Not likely, but possible.

Recent elections of the assembly seem to have seen a turn towards more moderate voices so there is reason for hope there. And Bill Roggio is reporting that the pressure on Iran is creating political discord in that country. A passage of note:

Saudi Arabia's actions with respect to Iran have been particularly of interest, as their influence on the price of oil has a direct impact on Iranian cash flow. "The Saudi oil minister has steadfastly refused calls for a special meeting of OPEC and announced that the nation is going to increase its production, which will send the price down even farther," reported NBC News. The belief is the Saudis have fired the first salvo in an oil price war with Iran.

The Saudis have directly warned the Iranians to keep out of "Arabs affairs." We speak with Iranian about Arabs affairs, said Saudi Arabias Foreign Affairs Minister Prince Saud al Faysal. We think that it is dangerous to interfere into our affairs. Therefore, we express to Iranians our concerns about their influence in the Arab world. It is logical. But when other countries speak to them about our problems, that confer legitimacy to the Iranian interferences in the Arab world. This is why we are not favorable. We hope that Iran will be a good neighbor, that the Iranians will be a part of the solution and not the problem. It is what we repeat to them: you do not interfere with our affairs.

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